"No-One Knows"

15/01/2019

A couple of days ago, a friend of mine (a pro-Brexit friend) posted to his Facebook wall the following:

"Corbyn the latest MP to use the word 'catastrophic' in relation to leaving without a deal. Still, though, not one person - not a single one - able to explain why. Project Fear 2 has learned something from 2016. That, if you have no evidence, you can embed an idea in peoples minds if you just keep repeating the same words over and over and over again."

Having been asked whether he was suggesting everything would be okay, he responded:

"You're confusing me with THIS Ivor."

"I can't tell you how it will be. Not with a deal, not without a deal, not staying in the EU. Because (as I have to keep reiterating) NO ONE CAN. The difference between me and Jezza though, is that he seems to think he does know the future.

The trouble with being a prophet of doom is that, first, you have to be a prophet.

One thing I can say though, is that, although an economy can't be predicted, it can sure be 'talked down'. So my message to the fearmongers is this:

Put the hard evidence for your claims on the table and, if you can't do that (which so far none of them have), then give us a rest from the horror stories."

This, in my opinion, ridiculous argument can be used for other subjects equally validly; in other words, equally stupidly:

• no-one knows whether I'll crash my car and kill someone, just because I am extremely drunk;

• no-one knows if I will end up destitute in retirement, if I withdraw my whole pension fund and place it on lucky number 7 on the roulette table;

• no-one knows whether, if I set up my own bungee jump using a number of cheap bungee cords bonded together, using them will lead to my death; and

• no-one knows whether cycling around the M25 on a rusty bicycle would lead to the death of the cyclist.

It is obvious that each of these things is ill-advised and that the reasons for this are the high risk of each activity. But, no-one knows.

That is why, as we go about our daily lives, we make a significant number of 'risk assessments'; most of them without even really acknowledging that we are doing it.  Crossing the road on foot, turning at a junction in our car, getting your dinner out of the oven... What we are doing, is assessing the information we have to make a judgement as to whether each action is safe, or when we know there is danger, whether we can mitigate the risk to some extent.

Your financial adviser should do this also, before recommending specific products or investment choices. Your doctor will do this when discussing treatment options, such as operations or drugs, to help you deal with a medical condition.

When a doctor suggests that smoking 40 cigarettes a day might lead to you suffering from cancer, you don't fob them off saying they are scaremongering.

So, why on earth do people think is it acceptable to ignore the warnings of respected economists, business leaders, every living past UK Prime Minister, academics and scientists? When we talk about very real risks, we are not scaremongering. We are in fact using the best information available in order to give an indication of what is believed may happen.

So, what would be considered scaremongering?

How about the misleading, xenophobic campaign posters used by those championing Brexit?

Turkey is not, as yet, joining the EU. This is in spite of the fact that the UK has actually suggested they be fast tracked for EU membership. If you research which countries were in favour, you'll see the British government has historically been open to Turkey joining the EU.

Moreover, even if they did join the EU, why on earth would that suggest their 76m population would suddenly up sticks and move to the UK? Turkey has a successful tourist industry and has the world's 17th-largest nominal GDP. It is preposterous to suggest, as intended by the campaigns run by Vote Leave and Leave EU, that they'd all be keen to live in England.

We already have a significant number of Turkish nationals who live and work in the UK. These people do so perfectly legally and therefore contribute to the exchequer at the same time as working for UK companies or providing excellent services to UK citizens.

Personally, I have enjoyed eating Turkish food at a number of Turkish restaurants (and not just kebabs at the end of a night out), had my hair cut in a Turkish barbers and had my car cleaned by enterprising Turkish businessmen. Much as I have always felt uneasy about Turkey, as I lived in Cyprus when Turkey invaded, I have experienced nothing but positivity from all of the Turkish nationals I have met.

The real scaremongering throughout every stage of the referendum campaign and the debacle that has followed, has been from the very people complaining about 'project fear'. The scaremongering is being pushed by the Brexiteers.

In political terms, there is another direct parallel with this.

Look across 'the pond' and you will find Trump whining about 'fake news' and casting aspersions against those who stand against him or seek to find the truth about his collusion with Russia.

There is no difference between the pathetic whining of Brexiteers when faced with the reality of how bad Brexit is likely to be, and Trump and his neanderthal followers in America accusing others of the very crimes they are themselves committing.

And then there's those who keep saying, "we never said the NHS would get the £350m per week.

Really?

Did Vote Leave really not state this?

It's time to wrestle control back from the liars and cheats. It's time to think about not just our future, but the futures of the generations to come.